There is a belief among fans of “Star Trek” that each of the even numbered films are consistently first-class while each of the odd numbered films inevitably face lukewarm critical and fan reception. The proof would seem to be irrefutable.
My Academy Award predictions seem to follow a very similar, though reversed, pattern. The odd years have been good to me — often I am off by only three or four picks. This being an even year, all bets are off.
Still, guessing who’ll be standing at the podium with the statuette is half the fun of watching the Academy Awards. Some of the nominations this year are solid as a rock (Daniel Day-Lewis anyone?) while others are anyone’s guess (Dee or Blanchett? What about Amy Ryan?).
It was a ravishing year for film and for what they’re worth, here are my Academy Award predictions:
Best Motion Picture of the Year
“Atonement”
“Juno”
“Michael Clayton”
“No Country for Old Men”
“There Will Be Blood”
WILL WIN: “No Country for Old Men”
SHOULD WIN: “There Will Be Blood”
Both “No Country” and “Blood” are deserving of this honor, though I would love to see it go to the latter. Don’t be fooled by “Atonement’s” success of late in other awards circles. The winner of this race will be one of the two most important American films to hit theater screens in the last decade.
Achievement in Directing
Julian Schnabel for “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”
Jason Reitman for “Juno”
Tony Gilroy for “Michael Clayton”
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen for “No Country for Old Men”
Paul Thomas Anderson for “There Will Be Blood”
WILL WIN: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
SHOULD WIN: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
The Coen Bros. should be a lock for this one, especially after their Directors Guild Award. If there is a dark horse here, it is Julian Schnabel. There’s not a lot of momentum for Anderson, which is odd given the admiration of his film. First time director Gilroy did a bang-up job, but like Reitman, it was not enough to go home with Oscar.
Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
George Clooney in “Michael Clayton”
Daniel Day-Lewis in “There Will Be Blood”
Johnny Depp in “Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”
Tommy Lee Jones in “In the Valley of Elah”
Viggo Mortensen in “Eastern Promises”
WILL WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis
SHOULD WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis
Lewis had the Oscar at hello. Nuff said. Still, he is nominated in the company of giants this year.
Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett in “Elizabeth: The Golden Age”
Julie Christie in “Away from Her”
Marion Cotillard in “La Vie en Rose”
Laura Linney in “The Savages”
Ellen Page in “Juno”
WILL WIN: Julie Christie
SHOULD WIN: Marion Cotillard
I surely mean no disrespect to Ms. Christie when I say that Cotillard should take home this award. Certainly Christie’s performance was rich and nuanced, but Cotillard’s turn as the self-destructive, grief-ridden Edith Piaf was one for the ages.
Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Casey Affleck in “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford”
Javier Bardem in “No Country for Old Men”
Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Charlie Wilson’s War”
Hal Holbrook in “Into the Wild”
Tom Wilkinson in “Michael Clayton”
WILL WIN: Javier Bardem
SHOULD WIN: Javier Bardem
Bardem’s win is as set in stone as Daniel Day-Lewis’. End of discussion. Wonderful as the other contenders are (and this was one of my favorite compilations this year), they pale in comparison to Bardem’s creepy, psychopathic killer. Question: where is Ben Foster as Russell Crowe’s demonic sidekick in “3:10 to Yuma?”
Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Cate Blanchett in “I’m Not There”
Ruby Dee in “American Gangster”
Saoirse Ronan in “Atonement”
Amy Ryan in “Gone Baby Gone”
Tilda Swinton in “Michael Clayton”
WILL WIN: Cate Blanchett
SHOULD WIN: Having not yet seen all the nominees, I’ll refrain from making a selection
I’m going to have to go with the critical consensus on this one because I’m afraid I missed Blanchett’s performance in “I’m Not There.” The Golden Globes would seem to indicate Ruby Dee as Blanchett’s primary competition, but in my opinion, if there is an underdog in the wings, it is the terrific Amy Ryan.
Achievement in Cinematography
Roger Deakins for “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford”
Seamus McGarvey for “Atonement”
Janusz Kaminski for “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”
Roger Deakins for “No Country for Old Men”
Robert Elswit for “There Will Be Blood”
WILL WIN: Roger Deakins for “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford”
SHOULD WIN: Roger Deakins for “The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford”
This was an exquisite year for cinematography and none did a more breathtaking job than the prolific Deakins. Deakins will surprise everyone and win, not for “No Country,” but for the even more astounding imagery of “Assassination.”
Adapted Screenplay
“Atonement” by Christopher Hampton
“Away from Her” by Sarah Polley
“The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” by Ronald Harwood
“No Country for Old Men” by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
“There Will Be Blood” by Paul Thomas Anderson
WILL WIN: “No Country for Old Men”
SHOULD WIN: “No Country for Old Men”
This is one of the most difficult categories to predict this year. Each film is exceptionally deserving. Still, this should be another win for “No Country.”
Original Screenplay
“Juno” by Diablo Cody
“Lars and the Real Girl” by Nancy Oliver
“Michael Clayton” by Tony Gilroy
“Ratatouille” Screenplay by Brad Bird
“The Savages” by Tamara Jenkins
WILL WIN: “Juno”
SHOULD WIN: “Juno”
First time screenwriter Diablo Cody will be rewarded for her script, so masterful in its construction, nuance and hilarity that it is very easy to overlook its pitch-perfect complexity.
Achievement in Film Editing
Christopher Rouse for “The Bourne Ultimatum”
Juliette Welfling for “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”
Jay Cassidy for “Into the Wild”
Roderick Jaynes for “No Country for Old Men”
Dylan Tichenor for “There Will Be Blood”
WILL WIN: “The Bourne Ultimatum”
SHOULD WIN: “The Bourne Ultimatum”
I am not a fan of the hyperkinetic editing usually associated with the attention deficit ridden films of Michael Bay and Jerry Bruckheimer. But Rouse used the technique for good instead of evil in “Bourne.” His only competition is Roderick Jaynes (a pseudonym for the Coen Bros.), who may pull an upset.
Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)
Dario Marianelli for “Atonement”
Alberto Iglesias for “The Kite Runner”
James Newton Howard for “Michael Clayton”
Michael Giacchino for “Ratatouille”
Marco Beltrami for “3:10 to Yuma”
WILL WIN: “Atonement”
SHOULD WIN: “Atonement”
One of the most unpredictable categories of the entire night. Each is terrific, though it should come down to Marianelli, Iglesias and possibly Giacchino. “Kite Runner’s” lack of success at the box office could hurt its chances, as could the animated nature of “Ratatouille.” Meanwhile, Marianelli’s classically lush yet artistically nuanced (love that typewriter percussion) “Atonement” is probably just what the Academy ordered.
Achievement in Art Direction
“American Gangster”
“Atonement”
“The Golden Compass”
“Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”
“There Will Be Blood”
WILL WIN: “Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”
SHOULD WIN: “Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”
Not only is it the most deserving of the bunch, but many critics would have loved to have seen “Sweeney Todd” make it on the Best Picture list (I wasn’t one of them), much less win an Oscar for Art Direction. Look for that nod here.
Achievement in Costume Design
Albert Wolsky for “Across the Universe”
Jacqueline Durran for “Atonement”
Alexandra Byrne for “Elizabeth: The Golden Age”
Marit Allen for “La Vie en Rose”
Colleen Atwood for “Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street”
WILL WIN: “Elizabeth: The Golden Age”
SHOULD WIN: “Elizabeth: The Golden Age”
This one is all over the map, but I think Byrne will get it for her extraordinary dresses in “Elizabeth.” There are two dark horses here: Atwood for “Sweeney Todd” and Durran for “Atonement.”
Achievement in Makeup
Didier Lavergne and Jan Archibald for “La Vie en Rose”
Rick Baker and Kazuhiro Tsuji for “Norbit”
Ve Neill and Martin Samuel for “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End”
WILL WIN: “La Vie en Rose”
SHOULD WIN: “La Vie en Rose”
Does anyone really believe the Academy is going to give an award to “Norbit?” The makeup for “Pirates” was justifiably amazing, and the franchise shockingly wasn’t even nominated for this award last year, so it may take the prize. Still, any makeup artist talented enough to make the ravishingly beautiful Marion Cotillard both look uglier and age her into decrepitude deserves the statuette.
Achievement in Sound Editing
Karen Baker Landers and Per Hallberg for “The Bourne Ultimatum”
Skip Lievsay for “No Country for Old Men”
Randy Thom and Michael Silvers for “Ratatouille”
Matthew Wood for “There Will Be Blood”
Ethan Van der Ryn and Mike Hopkins for “Transformers”
WILL WIN: “The Bourne Ultimatum”
SHOULD WIN: “The Bourne Ultimatum”
Ah, the sound categories, consistently the must difficult to divine because they are the least understood. I’m leaning with “Bourne” here simply because the only other real competition, “Transformers” is more noise than sound.
Achievement in Sound Mixing
Scott Millan, David Parker and Kirk Francis for “The Bourne Ultimatum”
Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff, Peter Kurland for “No Country for Old Men”
Randy Thom, Michael Semanick and Doc Kane for “Ratatouille”
Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Jim Stuebe for “3:10 to Yuma”
Kevin O’Connell, Greg P. Russell and Peter J. Devlin for “Transformers”
WILL WIN: “Transformers”
SHOULD WIN: “No Country for Old Men”
“Transformers” will take the statuette, but if there is any justice in the world, it will go to “No Country” for the way in which its mixers so judiciously knew exactly when and where to get the most out of their aural soundscape — something not even on “Transformers’” radar.
Achievement in Visual Effects
Michael Fink, Bill Westenhofer, Ben Morris, Trevor Wood for “The Golden Compass”
John Knoll, Hal Hickel, Charles Gibson and John Frazier for “Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End”
Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Russell Earl and John Frazier for “Transformers”
WILL WIN: “Transformers”
SHOULD WIN: “The Golden Compass”
“The Golden Compass” really pushed the medium with its superb renderings of animals. Still, “Transformers” should have this one in the bag. What I want to know is, where’s “300’s” nomination? Where is “Beowulf”?
Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)
“Falling Slowly” from “Once”: Music and Lyric by Glen Hansard and: Marketa Irglova
“Happy Working Song” from “Enchanted”: Music by Alan Menken; Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
“Raise It Up” from “August Rush”: Multiple nominees
“So Close” from “Enchanted”: Music by Alan Menken; Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
“That’s How You Know” from “Enchanted”: Music by Alan Menken; Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
WILL WIN: “Falling Slowly” from “Once”
SHOULD WIN: “Falling Slowly” from “Once”
“Once” was almost good enough to be nominated for Best Picture, but it will have to be satisfied with a win for the very deserving “Falling Slowly.”
Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
“Persepolis”
“Ratatouille”
“Surf’s Up”
WILL WIN: “Ratatouille”
SHOULD WIN: “Persepolis”
Though technically brilliant, genuinely enchanting and worthy of the lofty Pixar standard, “Ratatouille” doesn’t reinvent any wheels. “Persepolis,” on the other hand, is a vibrant and imaginative visual cornucopia. Too bad it won’t win. Nothing’s gonna stop the Rat.
Best Documentary Feature
“No End in Sight”
“Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience”
“Sicko”
“Taxi to the Dark Side”
“War/Dance”
WILL WIN: “No End in Sight”
SHOULD WIN: “War/Dance”
The blistering “No End in Sight” is the prince among a superb crop of Iraq documentaries this year. It should rise easily to victory. Still, “War/Dance” was the most profoundly moving of all the nominees, to say nothing of the most luxuriously shot. Academy favorite Michael Moore will have to go home empty handed this year.
Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
“Beaufort” from Israel
“The Counterfeiters” from Austria
“Katyn” from Poland
“Mongol” from Kazakhstan
“12” from Russia
WILL WIN: “The Counterfeiters”
SHOULD WIN: Having not yet seen all the nominees, I will refrain from making a selection
The absence of the superb “4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days” from the Best Foreign Language category has caused many critics and fans to label this year’s Oscars a complete sham, and rightfully so. That said, I predict Austria’s “Counterfeiters,” if for no other reason than because it very well may be the only foreign film the voters actually had a chance to see.
Best Live Action Short Film
“At Night”
“Il Supplente (The Substitute)”
“Le Mozart des Pickpockets (The Mozart of Pickpockets)”
“Tanghi Argentini”
“The Tonto Woman”
WILL WIN: “The Tonto Woman”
SHOULD WIN: “The Tonto Woman”
Among some nice and zany shorts, “The Tonto Woman” stands out, a Western which may ride “No Country for Old Men” and “There Will Be Bloods’s” coattails into Oscar history. It’s the one film I would like to see as feature. Still, in an award show awash in weighty films, perhaps the levity of “Le Mozart des Pickpockets” or “Tanghi Argentini” will take the night.
Best Documentary Short Subject
“Freeheld”
“La Corona (The Crown)”
“Salim Baba”
“Sari’s Mother”
WILL WIN: “Sari’s Mother”
SHOULD WIN: “La Corona”
“Sari’s Mother” is the least complete of the films, however it contains some of the most powerful moments. Its anti-Iraq stance may push it over the top despite its shortcomings. “Freeheld” is equally powerful, but “La Corona” is the most organically whole.
Best Animated Short Film
“I Met the Walrus”
“Madame Tutli-Putli”
“Même Les Pigeons Vont au Paradis (Even Pigeons Go to Heaven)”
“My Love (Moya Lyubov)”
“Peter & the Wolf”
WILL WIN: “Madame Tutli-Putli”
SHOULD WIN: “Moya Lyubov” or “I Met the Walrus”
Despite being indecipherable, “Madame Tutli-Putli” seems to have all the momentum this evening. However, for pure aesthetics, nothing beats Russia’s “Moya Lyubov,” the sort of film you’d get it Renoir made animated shorts–this is Impressionism animated. “I Met the Walrus,” the briefest of the films, had the most to say and had the most fun saying it.